Tariffs, AI, and the New US Staffing Market: What UK Recruiters Need to Know

Tariffs, AI, and the New US Staffing Market: What UK Recruiters Need to Know

The landscape for UK recruiters entering the US has shifted significantly. Two conversations on RecTalk with Francis Larson — CEO of Ascen, the Y Combinator-backed EOR platform now part of Upwork — lay out exactly what’s changed and what it means for your strategy.

The headline: the opportunity is still real. But the how has changed considerably.

The Tariff Effect on US Hiring

Tariffs were front and centre when Larson appeared on RecTalk in April 2025, and the logic is important for any UK recruiter thinking about US market timing.

New trade policy creates uncertainty. Uncertainty makes companies pause on permanent headcount decisions — nobody wants to commit to a full-time salary when they don’t know what next quarter looks like.

But here’s what experienced staffing professionals know that most people miss: when permanent hiring slows, contingent and contract hiring often increases. Businesses still have work to do. They still need skilled people. They just want flexibility. They want to be able to scale down as fast as they scaled up.

For UK recruiters entering the US on the contract staffing side, a period of economic caution can be a genuine opening — if your infrastructure is in place and you can move quickly when a client says yes.

AI Has Killed Cold Outbound — But Created a New Opportunity

The second Larson episode on RecTalk focused heavily on AI’s impact on the hiring market, and it directly changes how UK recruiters should be positioning themselves.

“Any kind of cold outbound I think is just dead dead. It’s all devolved to spam. It’s just sludge.”

— Francis Larson, Ascen, on RecTalk

AI tools have made it trivially easy for anyone to send thousands of personalised-looking emails a day. The result? Hiring managers tune it all out. Response rates have collapsed across the board.

What this does — counterintuitively — is create an advantage for recruiters who lead with genuine relationships and genuine value. In a market where everyone is automating their outreach, the recruiter who actually understands your business and calls with a relevant, specific candidate stands out dramatically.

For UK recruiters, this framing matters. You don’t have the brand recognition of established US firms. You don’t have the existing client history. What you can have is specificity, relevance, and the kind of human follow-through that automated systems can’t replicate.

Target Money in Motion

Larson’s single most actionable piece of advice for UK firms entering the US: follow the funding.

“Who do you want to pick as customers? You want to pick rich customers in fast growing markets. You want people who have money and who are growing. The mindset in the US, if you’re going to the US, has to be: who has money, who just got money, who is growing rapidly. Forget about the enterprise clients. Just forget about it for now.”

US startup funding rounds are publicly announced. When a company closes a Series A or B, they immediately start hiring. They have cash, urgency, and — often — no incumbent recruiter relationships. That’s your window.

How to Execute the Funding Strategy

  • Track Crunchbase and TechCrunch funding announcements weekly
  • Focus on companies that raised in the last 60–90 days
  • Reach out with a specific, sector-relevant angle — not a generic agency pitch
  • These are not cold prospects. They have an active, funded hiring need right now.

Where AI Hiring Demand Is Actually Strongest

The AI sector in the US has been on a significant hiring tear — and the second RecTalk episode with Larson was titled AI Hiring, Startup Growth & Winning Big Clients for good reason.

Roles in highest demand in the US right now:

  • ML and AI engineers
  • AI product managers
  • Data scientists with LLM or generative AI experience
  • AI infrastructure and DevOps

UK recruiters with networks in these areas have a genuine competitive advantage over domestic US firms that are scrambling to build the same pipeline from scratch.

Meanwhile, the broader tech market has been more uneven. SaaS development hiring cooled significantly after the 2022–2023 correction. UK recruiters entering the US tech market need to be clear-eyed about where demand is actually strong versus where it’s still recovering.

The Case for Moving Now, Not Waiting

There will always be a reason to wait — tariff uncertainty, AI disruption, market corrections, political volatility. There will never be a perfect moment.

The UK recruiters who established themselves in the US during the 2023–2024 downturn are the ones who have client relationships and a track record now, as the market strengthens. The ones who waited are starting from zero in a more competitive environment.

The infrastructure to support a UK agency entering the US has never been better. EOR platforms handle the compliance. Recruiter marketplaces provide entry points to US clients. Video tools make the time zone gap manageable.

The question isn’t whether conditions are perfect. The question is whether you’re ready.

This post is based on two RecTalk episodes featuring Francis Larson, CEO of Ascen (now part of Upwork). Watch Episode 1: Opportunity, Tariffs & Tenacity and Watch Episode 2: AI Hiring, Startup Growth & Winning Big Clients on YouTube.

Find the tools and suppliers you need for US expansion at rectools.io.